Heavy Rain and Severe Weather Update – Wednesday April 19

Published 1:28 pm Wednesday, April 19, 2023

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Changes from previous update:

  • The threat of severe weather has decreased

  • The threat of locally heavy rain has increased in area


WHAT:  SLIGHT RISK of Excessive Rain and MARGINAL RISK of Severe Weather

WHEN: Friday and Friday night

WHERE: All of SELA and SW MS; lowest risk over coastal MS at this time.


  • Due to significant uncertainty, confidence is low in the overall forecast, especially regarding timing and location.
  • There is moderate confidence we will see widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possibly leading to isolated flash flooding sometime Friday and/or Friday night but, confidence is low with respect to a location.
  • Confidence is very low that we will see any severe storms but if we do it would probably be Friday from late morning through the afternoon.


The most likely impact appears to be locally heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding but severe weather can not be ruled out:


  • Widespread 1 to 2.5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
  • ponding of water in low-lying and poorly draining areas is expected; isolated flash flooding is possible as thunderstorms will be quite efficient with very high rain rates.

All modes of severe weather are possible however at this time strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail could be the primary risk.