Hurricane season not a game of odds

Published 12:00 am Saturday, June 4, 2011

As just about everyone knows by now, hurricane season began Wednesday. Since 2005, June 1 is a date that receives almost as much attention as Fat Tuesday in the region.

Meterologists at Colorado State University recently released percentages concerning the odds of a storm hitting Louisiana this storm season. They put the odds at 47 percent of any type of tropical storm to hit the coast. According to their research, there is a 20 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the Louisiana coast in 2011. The numbers drop to 30 percent and 12 percent when narrowed to just the River Parishes.

Other predictions for the storm season include 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

All these numbers mean little in the real world, however. Few remember that last year’s locally quiet storm season actually surpassed predictions for the number of named storms. Favorable steering currents, however, kept these from striking the U.S. coast.

These numbers show that no matter what the predictions say, tropical storms are ultimately unpredictable. There is no way to know for certain what this storm season will actually hold for Louisiana.

Playing the odds at a casino can be very costly, but playing the odds during storm season can be much more so. There is really only one way to win at this game, and that is to be prepared.