The LABI Report: Senate race creeps along

Published 12:00 am Saturday, September 21, 2002

By DAN JUNEAU

With less than two months left before the primary election, the race for the U.S. Senate is keeping a rather low profile.

With three serious Republican challengers and a well-financed incumbent vying for the position, many felt the race would have had more visibility at this point. However, the inevitable fireworks should begin soon.

Actually, there was quite a flurry of activity in the race a few weeks ago when Gov. Mike Foster ignited a media frenzy by declaring that he was seriously considering qualifying to run. Foster’s entrance would have cast a long shadow on the race.

He would have brought strong name recognition and a statewide base to the contest. Money wouldn’t have been a drawback for his candidacy, and he would have almost certainly been in a runoff with the incumbent, Mary Landrieu.

But the governor chose not to make the race. Some pundits observed that his distaste for travel made his dalliance with the Senate nothing more than a media ploy from the outset.

Others suggested it was a way for him to divert news from the ongoing White Lake controversy at the time.

And some political insiders believed that the governor, who does not take criticism well, was not going to subject himself to attacks from the Democratic operatives who populate the “attack dog” special interest groups both parties use in campaigns.

Foster’s sudden flirtation with the race and equally sudden departure left a natural void in the dynamics of the race. But that bubble has passed, and the strategies and tactics will now begin to develop.

Landrieu is a formidable candidate. She has more financing than any of her opponents – and there is more where that came from.

She has tried to buffer herself against the charges that she is left of center in a centrist state by attempting to be strong on defense issues and backing President George W. Bush on some key votes.

But the Republican opposition research teams will find votes that will be used to portray Landrieu as a loyal Democrat much more in line with liberals in the Senate like Barbara Boxer of California than with conservatives like Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas.

On the Republican side, three candidates are fighting to get into a runoff with Landrieu.

Congressman John Cooksey from Monroe was the first Republican to enter the race and now has the active backing of Foster. It remains to be seen whether Foster’s support for Cooksey at this point will result in the surge of financial support he needs to effectively complete the race.

State Representative Tony Perkins from the Baton Rouge area will count on his statewide base of support in the conservative religious community to garner enough votes to take on Landrieu in a runoff.

Additionally, the current Commissioner of Elections, Suzanne Haik Terrell, is the only statewide elected official outside of Landrieu in the race. Terrell hopes to parlay New Orleans area support with her Republican contacts and name recognition to hit the magic number of votes necessary to reach the runoff.

The Republican strategy is simple: get to the runoff. A runoff election would occur in early December, after every other Senate race in the country has been decided.

If there is a runoff, control of the U.S. Senate could quite possibly be determined by the Louisiana election.

That would nationalize our election, bringing in huge sums of money from across the country.

Republicans feel the projected lower voter turnout in December will accelerate their chances to beat Landrieu. That may be true, but if Louisiana will decide in December which party takes or keeps control of the Senate, look for the money to raise the interest level of the election to such an extent that the turnout will reflect the magnitude of the moment.

DAN JUNEAU is the president of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry.