By DAN JUNEAU

For several years now, economists, demographers and reporters have chronicled the stagnation that has existed in Louisiana from the standpoint of the state’s economy and population growth.

“Slow growth” has been the predominate description we have heard for several years now regarding job numbers and head counts.

The latest data indicates that Louisiana is no longer fortunate enough to be considered a “slow growth” state. We have now gone from slow growth to no growth. It was bad enough during the last decade when Louisiana was the only southern state to experience a net outmigration of its population.

Between 1990-1999, Louisiana netted a loss of 140,000 residents who moved away. Almost 20,000 of the 140,000 loss occurred in 1998-1999, which means that the trend is likely growing, not shrinking.

For a period of time, the outmigration losses were offset by the fact that the birth rate in the state was higher than the death rate, which resulted in a small population growth rate. Not anymore.

The outmigration totals are now outpacing the slow population growth, and according to the most recent population estimates, Louisiana is now actually losing population.

It is no surprise that people follow jobs. Only states with huge influxes of retirees (Arizona and Florida, for example) could conceivably have population growth even in the face of job losses.

Louisiana is not one of those states.

For several years now, economists have noted the fact that Louisiana, while maintaining sluggish job creation totals, was losing higher paying jobs that were being “offset” by lower paying jobs.

Those same economists warned that a continuation of that trend would have serious implications for the economy and for household income in Louisiana. Those implications have now been realized.

Between 1999-2000, the increase in annual pay for Louisiana residents was the smallest in the country.

During that same period, only three states showed a statistically significant decrease in household income: Louisiana, Alabama and Washington.

The trend toward more rapid outmigration and declining income levels is verified by employment figures. The life-blood of any economy is in its manufacturing base. Manufacturing is the purest form of value-added activity – the activity that most stimulates an economy.

In the past two years, Louisiana has seen a 9 percent drop in manufacturing employment with most of the decrease (6.5 percent) coming in the last year. Overall, nonagricultural employment dropped more than 4 percent in Louisiana last year, and only slight gains in construction and oil and gas operations prevented the situation from being even worse.

Interestingly, while both durable and nondurable goods manufacturing was declining last year (along with almost every other category of employment), state and local government employment actually grew. If this trend continues, jobs and the economy will eclipse all issues in the state elections in the year 2003.

Anyone running for governor without a serious plan for turning around our weak economy will not get very far.

In the legislative races, challengers will be asking incumbents what they have done to help save the jobs we have and bring in new industry to replace those that have left – and the incumbents who don’t have good answers will be in trouble.

Louisiana citizens are tired of seeing their kids and grandkids move to other states for opportunities that no longer exist here.

Many polls now indicate that the public views this situation as a major crisis facing the state. Crises test leadership, and Louisiana’s governmental leaders are now taking their exams.

Their papers will be graded in the fall of 2003.

DAN JUNEAU is the president of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry.