Waking up the sleepers in fantasy
Published 2:44 pm Friday, August 2, 2013
This issue, we’re on to part two of the fantasy football breakdown for all of you fellow draft addicts.
We got the “elite” guys out of the way already. While, as noted, those early picks certainly represent the greatest influence over how good or bad you’ll ultimately be, it’s not the fun part: finding studs later in the draft is, and our inflated sense of ability to find these guys is why we all show up on draft night sporting a level of smugness not really appropriate for “the night we GM a pretend team.”
Let’s dig in, to the receivers and quarterbacks, shall we?
DeSean Jackson, Eagles (No. 68 overall player as per ESPN.com) You’re about to notice a trend with me: I love to target guys who have no real, tangible competition for carries or targets. The reason is simple: it’s a lot easier to bank on a coach’s gameplan involving your guy when he simply has no other choice. There are so many, many variables in fantasy, but getting guys who you know will always be in the gameplan is a huge boon.
With Jeremy Maclin’s injury last week (and maybe even Riley Cooper’s public relations disaster), Jackson is THE pass-receiver in a Chip Kelly offense. Kelly is one of the most gifted offensive minds in football, and now his life’s mission is going to be to get Jackson the ball in space. Couple that with the hurry-up – more plays for Jackson, and more tired, lead-footed defenders for him to beat – and you’ve got a mid-round guy who can threaten for a top 5 position.
Mike Wallace, Dolphins (47th overall). I LOVE Mike Wallace this season. Dolphins’ coach Joe Philbin, dating back to his time as Green Bay offensive coordinator, calls passing plays at a greater rate than guys like Andy Reid, Mike Martz and Sean Payton. These are guys that like to toss it around, as you may have noticed. Wallace is perennially one of the league’s best big-play weapons and most efficient receivers, and he’ll be Ryan Tannehill’s go-to guy. Tannehill is no sure thing, but he wasn’t bad as a rookie. I see a lot of big games this season for Wallace, who – again, the trend – has no established stars to fight for targets with, on an offense features its wide receivers at the expense of its outlet receivers (as Reggie Bush and Jermichael Finley owners of late can attest).
Jimmy Graham, Saints (29th overall). We touched on Drew Brees’ “revenge-year” potential last issue, but the fact remains, taking a quarterback early this season is a tough sell when guys like a 5,000 yard Matt Stafford probably go as the last starter in your 10-team league. So while Brees remains a high-upside pick, you’ll have to pay for that upside – and you’ll also likely have to pay the Saints’ tax, seeing as if you’re reading this, you’re probably drafting locally. Graham gets “Saints-taxed” as well, but likely not to Brees’ degree. If Brees and Sean Payton are running up scores, this is the guy who’ll be hauling in scores from the 1 comically late in games.
Reggie Wayne, Colts. (41st overall) Wayne’s likely to slip a bit in rankings due to age, but he’s still the No. 1 with a bullet for Indy, with a rising star at QB, without another prominent pass receiver around him. Basically the same situation he was in a year ago when he turned in a Top 15 season despite only scoring five times. I think he’s likely to at least match this draft spot.
Steve Smith, Panthers (53), Torrey Smith, Ravens (71), Anquan Boldin, 49ers (75) – All except for Boldin are essentially men on an island on their teams with capable quarterbacks, and in Boldin’s case Vernon Davis isn’t really a targets hog. Torrey Smith and Boldin each have already seen competition go down for the count in Michael Crabtree and Dennis Pitta. Steve Smith was pretty rough for much of last season, but that coincided with Cam Newton’s slump. If you believe Newton closer to his last six weeks of play – where Smith was very productive – then he’s a good pickup.
Michael Vick, Eagles (118) – If you get him at this price, it’s absurd. Vick might be worthless in fantasy – he was last season – but he’s a guy with a ton of ability who’s playing for Chip Kelly. Even if it’s a wasted pick, it’s worth it for the Top 5 equity you’ll be drafting late.
Matthew Stafford, Lions (65) – He’s topped 5,000 yards two straight seasons and throws to Calvin Johnson. If he does it again, he won’t be topping out at 20 touchdown passes as he did a year ago. That was a fluke.