The Horn … er, the PELICANS drew number six in the NBA Draft Lottery Tuesday night, much to the chagrin of the team’s fans hoping to win that top pick for the second season in a row.
The team actually was close to moving up, as it turns out – general manager Dell Demps revealed the team was one lottery ball away from hitting the combination needed to move into the third draft slot.
Still, in a draft noted more for its depth across the board than any one true “can’t miss” prospect, pick six isn’t such a bad place to be.
I’ll set the odds, as of today, as to who I think the Bugs … shoot, I’ll get the hang of this … BIRDS will take when draft day rolls around.
Trey Burke, G, Michigan, 60 percent – I strongly believe Burke will be staring New Orleans in the face at six. And when that happens, it’ll be the moment of truth for Demps, coach Monty Williams and the team’s fanbase.
Of the five teams drafting ahead of the Pelicans, only one needs a point guard, Orlando at two. The Magic have been very strongly linked to Kansas guard Ben McLemore for weeks already, and Cleveland isn’t likely to steal him given the presence of Dion Waiters at shooting guard already.
If Orlando selects McLemore, Washington (John Wall) Charlotte (Kemba Walker) and Phoenix (Goran Dragic) have entrenched young, highly-compensated point guards already. None appear likely at all to pick Burke, a 6-footer who can’t play shooting guard.
Which likely leaves him to the Pelicans. I’d put the percentage at higher than 60, but I can’t be sure the Hornets would jump at him. How married they are to Greivis Vasquez and Austin Rivers at the position is a question. I think it would be a mistake to pass on a talent like Burke to accommodate those guys. Vasquez can play, but his defensive shortcomings and propensity to turn the ball over makes him a liability. And while I’m not advocating throwing Rivers on the street – he improved a ton over his last 16 games – he’s shown nothing that would make me trust him enough to pass on a potential difference maker.
Burke’s got great shooting range, has tons of experience running an NBA-style system already, racks up assists and doesn’t turn it over at all. He’s short even for a point guard, but he’s got a good wingspan that mitigates that defensively somewhat. On a team that demands so much from its point guard, as the Pelicans historically do, he’d represent the single greatest upgrade.
But I’m not making the pick. It could also be …
Alex Len, C, Maryland – 20 percent. Robin Lopez turned in a nice year, but I could see the attraction with adding Len. He’s a 7-foot-1-inch center with real athleticism, and those are the league’s unicorns. Putting him next to Anthony Davis could give the team a big, yet exceptionally athletic frontcourt. Every successful team needs a calling card.
I’m not as high on this pick though as I would be Burke. Len would be a more scarce asset – solid point guards are a dime a dozen these days, though I think Burke will be more than that – but he’s already got a fractured ankle. Bigs with leg and foot problems this young pose a worry … sometimes they never get off of that slippery slope.
I’m also stubborn. I want to envision Anthony Davis as a center in the Chris Bosh/LaMarcus Aldridge mode once Davis bulks up. He and Ryan Anderson are our two best players, and unless Davis can start playing more center, one of he or Anderson are going to be woefully underutilized each night (see also: 2012-13 season). Anderson as a sixth man isn’t my cup of tea long term, since this isn’t the old days where teams trotted out three true big men and called one a small forward (Kevin McHale, Anthony Mason, Xavier McDaniel, Larry Johnson …. Yes, I’m a Knicks fan, too). Manu Ginobili can get starters minutes off the bench since he can play the two, the three and the point in a pinch.
Anderson can really only play power forward, and if he remains a sixth man it’s because our best player is also stationed at power forward. I want those two on the court together.
A European prospect – 10 percent. There’s been a lot of talk that the Pelicans really like Dario Saric, a 6-foot-10  Croatian prospect that came up as a point guard, then moved to forward after a growth spurt. That pairing with Davis would be interesting, if for no other reason Davis was a guard as well before his growth spurt in high school.
German point guard Dennis Schroeder is 6-foot-2-inches with a 6-foot-8-inch wingspan and he’s motoring up the board. Gi-normous French center Rudy Gobert set a combine record for wingspan (7-8.5) and standing reach (9-7) and reportedly “shut the lane down” completely in a combine workout, so he can’t be discounted.
The Hornets didn’t even scout Europe when George Shinn owned the team, so this is a happy development.
The field – 10 percent. Depending on what happens with Eric Gordon, a shooting guard could be in play if one falls. I really doubt Victor Oladipo is available at six, but he’d be a near lock if Gordon isn’t long for this team … I’m a big fan of Syracuse point guard Michael Carter-Williams, and a long, defensive-minded, playmaking point seems up the Hornets’ alley … I don’t think they take another combo guard (CJ McCollum), a guy with a questionable attitude (Shabazz Muhammed), or a power forward (Anthony Bennett, Cody Zellar).