While I don’t bet on games –  at times I’ve been very right, longtime readers of my column are well aware that the number of swings and misses I’ve made over the years would land me in the master bedroom of the poorhouse – I do like to take a look at the Vegas lines to get a sense of what, truly, is expected to happen in a pro sporting event. We in the media can give an informed opinion. But unlike the oddsmakers and the betters, our long term bank statements aren’t riding on it coming true.
So when I saw Miami was favored by a whopping 12 points after their Game 1 NBA Playoff loss to Chicago, I was a little confused. Sure, the Heat weren’t likely to lose two in a row on their home floor, but surely the Bulls had shown that they could compete with the Heat. Heck, they’d won three straight against Miami, and ended that 27-game winning streak with a handful of key Chicago parts sidelined. 12 points? Nah.
Miami 115, Bulls 78. You might say the Heat covered.
As foolish as it was for me to doubt Vegas, that’s how foolish the masses are for calling for the return of Bulls star Derrick Rose from the torn ACL he suffered last postseason.
I write this column on Friday morning, before our press time, so it’s possible Rose will have already made me look foolish for what I’m about to write – I alluded to such a possibility in the first paragraph, right? The Bulls and Heat were set to play Friday night. But nonetheless …
First,  I’m not suggesting that Rose is completely in the right for taking his sweet time in returning. He’s practicing, and supposedly looks great. He’s been medically cleared to return for over two months. This Chicago team has played with heart all season to become a factor in the Eastern Conference, and not just without its star: this Bulls team lost Omer Asik, Kyle Korver, CJ Watson, Ronnie Brewer and John Lucas from last year’s team, all walking as free agents. You never know what’s in a player’s mind, but you get the feeling Rose hasn’t returned not because he fears reinjury, but because he fears looking like less than his best self.
But even if you believe that is Rose’s motive – and that would be, in my mind, a selfish, overly prideful one – at this point, it’s a waste for him to come back.
He hasn’t played NBA basketball in over a year. To not risk further injury, he’d have to be on a minutes cap, and 20-25 minutes a night of a rusty Rose isn’t going to lift Chicago past this Miami team in that capacity. The window for an effective return closed a while back, and with it the window closed on this Chicago team to win a title.
That’s a shame – there was a non-zero chance of that, given how well this team is coached and given the kind of defense the Bulls play. Still, you can’t put the genie back in the bottle if you’re Rose. It’s too late.
Honestly, my gut feeling is a Rose return now would do more to hurt the Bulls chances of pushing Miami further. Even after that Game Two wrecking, I don’t believe Miami wins the next three.
The Heat are by far the league’s best team, but they’re prone to overconfidence and mental letups and have been all season, thinking they can turn the switch on in the fourth quarter and win. Often, they can. But Chicago never lets up, and they should beat Miami again in this series.
But if Rose comes back, I can see the Heat locking in. All of a sudden, this series becomes a much bigger deal, a center stage event. Even if the Bulls can’t beat Miami in  a series, the narrative will change: people will start believing it can happen.
But when Miami is motivated, or slighted, there is nobody better. A Rose comeback would have LeBron’s full attention, and that of Wade, or Bosh, of their army of shooters. Rose won’t be able to dip a toe in the water before carefully wading in – Miami will blitz him, and the ensuing turnovers will bring to surface the Heat’s best weapon, their unstoppable transition attack.
Rose might buy some goodwill and praise for himself from a return now, but he won’t buy his team any victories. It’s best to just stay away for now.
The postseason hasbeen fun and full of intrigue so far.
The Spurs/Warriors series has emerged as perhaps the “must-watch” of the four. With David Lee’s injury, the Warriors have been going smaller and have been virtually impossible to defend, with Harrison Barnes at the four and the “Splash Brothers” in the backcourt.
I think Miami coasts past Chicago, but if they draw New York next round, it’l be tougher than most anticipate. And a potential finals matchup with Memphis would be extremely interesting; the Grizzlies are very, very good and very, very big. They have the size and perimeter defenders to give Miami difficulty. I think both of those series could go six or seven. That’s nothing but good news for hoops junkies.