By DAN JUNEAU

In the fall of 1995, Louisiana voters strongly approved a constitutional amendment that limited members of the Legislature to three consecutive terms in office.

Louisiana followed a strong national trend at that time when it too adopted term limits. The legislative elections in 2003 will mark the third and last term for legislators who are serving under the new law.

What impact term limits will have is still up in the air, but the experience of other states gives a hint at what we can expect in Louisiana. One of the main criticisms of term limits is that a huge influx of inexperienced legislators will come into office, unsure about what to do, and unfamiliar with the legislative process. That may or may not have been the case in other states, but it will not happen in Louisiana in January 2008 when the first “term limits” Legislature is seated.

Historically, almost a third of our Legislature turns over every four years. Some legislators are defeated, others resign for various reasons, and some win other elected positions. A close look at the current Legislature shows that there will not be a majority of “neophytes” running the show in 2008.

Our state Senate consists of 39 members. Some 26, or two-thirds, of the Senate who are running for re-election in 2003 are slated to be term limited in 2007. However, three of those senators have announced (or have strongly hinted) that they will be running for other seats either this year or next. There will undoubtedly be other senators who either will not be re-elected in 2003 or will run for other offices.

Also, there are always resignations during a four-year term. Election defeats, open seats, and retirements will also occur between the 2003 and 2007 elections, so consider it almost a certainty that fewer than half of the members of the Louisiana Senate will be new faces when the Class of 2008 is sworn in. And, by the way, only six of the 39 current senators have served longer than 11 years.

The House of Representatives will follow suit. As with the Senate, exactly two-thirds of the House (70 members) who are up for re-election in 2003 will be term limited in 2007. Ten of those members have already announced their retirements or plans to run for other offices.

Some members of the House will be defeated in the 2003 elections, and others will choose not to run. The same holds true for resignations, defeats, and open seats between 2003 and 2007. Similar to the Senate, the House should have less than a majority of 53 new members when the oaths are taken in January 2008. And, incidentally, only 23 of the 105 members of the House have served longer than 11 years.

From an institutional knowledge standpoint, the Legislature should not suffer any meltdowns with the advent of term limits in the 2007 elections.

There will be a sufficient number of experienced legislators who know the ropes and understand how the process works (or at least how it should work).

From that standpoint, the fear of “innocents” being slaughtered by the bureaucracy and lobbyists is a bogus argument.

What will be interesting to see is where the term-limited legislators go in 2007. Political offices can be limited by laws, but political ambition cannot. In other states, the advent of term limits has resulted in huge numbers of legislators running for other offices.

Senators run for Congress or higher statewide offices, and representatives run for the state Senate. While term limits may be effective in removing a handful of old dinosaurs from their seats of perennial power, it has not brought in the wide panorama of new perspectives and new faces that its advent promised over a decade ago. Perhaps that will be different in Louisiana – but don’t count on it.

DAN JUNEAU is the president of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry.