MICHAEL KIRAL / L’Observateur / April 13, 1999

There was a “Shoe” cartoon in which the Perfesser tells his nephew, Skyler, “For the baseball fan, Opening Day combines the eternal hope of spring with the irrational belief in the impossible.”Spring is indeed a season of hope for baseball fans, when even Cubs fans can dream of winning a World Series. Until that first pitch of the seasonwas thrown by San Diego’s Andy Ashby last Sunday (which was promptly slapped for a single by Colorado’s Darryl Hamilton), every team had the identical record, every batter the identical batting average.

Kansas City was tied with the New York Yankees. LaTroy Hawkins had thesame earned run average as Greg Maddux. Rey Ordonez was right up therewith Tony Gwynn in batting average. Ozzie Guillen had the same number ofhome runs as Mark McGwire. Of course, that ended quickly when the seasonactually got underway. But for a brief time, next year was this year evenfor the Florida Marlins.

McGwire picked up where he left off, hitting his first home run of the season against Milwaukee Monday night. Those were the few things thatwent as expected on Opening Day. How about Atlanta and the New YorkMets losing while Philadel-phia, Montreal and Florida were coming away with wins? What about Kevin Brown, Los Angeles’ $105 million man, being shelled for five runs and 10 hits in his first game? Or 1998 National League Cy Young winner Tom Glavine being knocked around for five runs in 6 2/3 innings? Who would have thought that the best pitching performance of Opening Day would come from Detroit’s Brian Moehler who took a no-hitter into the seventh? Or that Maddux would have as many home runs as McGwire through Thursday? If Opening Day is any indication of how the season will go, it would be foolish to make predictions but here they are.

The American League East looks to be the easiest to predict. It’s theYankees and everybody else. A team that won 125 games and the WorldSeries last year may be just as strong if not stronger in 1999 with the addition of Roger Clemens. All Clemens has done the last two years is wintwo Cy Youngs for a mediocre Toronto team. Baltimore (with Albert Belle)and Boston (without Mo Vaughn) will challenge for the wild card berth.

The American League Central is not as cut and dry as many would think.

Cleveland is the favorite but if Detroit gets any kind of pitching, the Tigers could seriously challenge for the division title. The same goes forMinnesota although second or third looks like a more reasonable finish for the Twins.

The American League West will be a dogfight between Anaheim, Texas and Seattle. None of the three has the pitching to pull away from the others.But all three have the talent to make this perhaps the best race in baseball.

The National League East will come down to Atlanta and the Mets with the Braves having the edge because of pitching. Look for the Mets, if theirpitchers can stay healthy, to get the wild card.

Philadelphia will be halfway decent as long as they keep Curt Schilling, while Mont-real, with MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero, could be the most surprising team in the league.

Houston is the favorite in the National League Central. Chicago might havebeen a contender before losing Kerry Wood. Now it appears the Cubs willbe bunched up with Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cin-cinnati and St. Louis withone perhaps challenging for the title if the Astros should falter without Moises Alou and Randy Johnson.

Johnson instantly brings credibility to Arizona in the National League West. The Big Unit held Los Angeles to two runs and five hits in the seasonopener but fell victim to the same problem he had while pitching for Seattle, a suspect bullpen.

If Darryl Kile and Pedro Astacio can come around, Colorado will be the one to beat in the division. The Dodgers, with Brown, cannot be counted out,while San Diego, without him, can be.

New York will win the AL pennant while Atlanta will capture the NL title with the Braves defeating the Yankees in the World Series. League MVPswill be Chipper Jones in the NL and Derek Jeter in the AL.

If Opening Day is any indication, these predictions will last as long as Ashby did in his first outing.

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